Risky Business

I prepared this risk analysis very early on but did not publish it.  I am doing so now, but backdating it to the beginning of the project, which is when it was prepared.

In any project it is always a good idea to be aware of the things that can go wrong and put you off schedule, or off track or, in this case, off the road.  Some of the issues that might impact upon an obruni  procuring and restoring an old vehicle in Ghana and using it to explore West Africa include the following.

Risk Rating Mitigation Strategy
 A.   To Procurement
  1. Cannot find a suitable vehicle
LowThere  seems to be no shortage in Accra. Diversify sourcing network beyond Opere by telling CHC drivers and  Francis the CHC mechanic I am in the market
B.    To Restoration
  1.   Opere becomes unavailable due to illness, misfortune or disagreement between us.
MediumOpere seems a tremendous asset, but my dependence on him need not be absolute.
  • Getting  the mechanical rebuild done first
  • carefully  cultivating the relationship  so I can rely on him
  • Diversify sources of expertise
      2.   I become ill, or Ghana posting is cut short Medium If fopr any reason I have to bail on the project with a half-restored vehicle I can likely find someone to buy it,  Opere himself will likely be a good candidate
  1.  Actual Restoration cost exceeds budget
Medium Complete as much as possible of the work myself; careful sourcing of parts;
C.   To the Expedition
  1.  Cannot take the time due to personnel or professional obligations
 LowI am now eligible to retire and plan to do so when I leave here so there will be no professional obligations Complete arrangements for retirement, pre-retirement leave, and repatriation of personal effects well in advance.
      2.   Mechanical Troubles en route Medium to High This is an older vehicle, mechanical troubles have to be expected Become very familiar with the vehicle;Carry suitable tools;Complete Test Trips
      3.   Political Instability in Countries to be Visitied, including kidnapping risk Medium to High  People are kidnapped in the Sahel with regularity  Limited mitigation available.  This is an adventure, if we are going to be risk adverse there is no point, we just have to get out there and do it.Maybe there is insurance?
D.    To Demobilization
  1. Unable to Sell before returning to Canada
Medium  Start marketing early,Diversify market options (Ghana local, Europeans interested in overlanding in  AfricaFollow  Canadian import regs
     2.  Change in Canadian Import Regulations Medium