I prepared this risk analysis very early on but did not publish it. I am doing so now, but backdating it to the beginning of the project, which is when it was prepared.
In any project it is always a good idea to be aware of the things that can go wrong and put you off schedule, or off track or, in this case, off the road. Some of the issues that might impact upon an obruni procuring and restoring an old vehicle in Ghana and using it to explore West Africa include the following.
|A. To Procurement|
||LowThere seems to be no shortage in Accra.||Diversify sourcing network beyond Opere by telling CHC drivers and Francis the CHC mechanic I am in the market|
|B. To Restoration|
||MediumOpere seems a tremendous asset, but my dependence on him need not be absolute.||
|2. I become ill, or Ghana posting is cut short||Medium||If fopr any reason I have to bail on the project with a half-restored vehicle I can likely find someone to buy it, Opere himself will likely be a good candidate|
||Medium||Complete as much as possible of the work myself; careful sourcing of parts;|
|C. To the Expedition|
||LowI am now eligible to retire and plan to do so when I leave here so there will be no professional obligations||Complete arrangements for retirement, pre-retirement leave, and repatriation of personal effects well in advance.|
|2. Mechanical Troubles en route||Medium to High This is an older vehicle, mechanical troubles have to be expected||Become very familiar with the vehicle;Carry suitable tools;Complete Test Trips|
|3. Political Instability in Countries to be Visitied, including kidnapping risk||Medium to High People are kidnapped in the Sahel with regularity||Limited mitigation available. This is an adventure, if we are going to be risk adverse there is no point, we just have to get out there and do it.Maybe there is insurance?|
|D. To Demobilization|
||Medium||Start marketing early,Diversify market options (Ghana local, Europeans interested in overlanding in AfricaFollow Canadian import regs|
|2. Change in Canadian Import Regulations||Medium|